A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
